Can We Still Trust Plan B’s Bitcoin Price Model? The Truth Behind 2025 Revealed

Since 2019, Plan B’s “Stock-to-Flow (S2F)” model has become one of the most controversial forecasting tools in the crypto world. Based on mathematical logic and the theory of scarcity, it attempts to explain Bitcoin’s price movements through supply and demand dynamics. Many investors once regarded it as a “holy grail indicator,” while others criticized it as overly idealistic.

Now it’s November 2025, and Bitcoin has weathered multiple bull and bear cycles—so is Plan B’s forecast a myth, or just a statistical anomaly? This article will help you reassess the topic with a concise and logical approach.

1. What Is Plan B’s S2F Model?

The S2F (Stock-to-Flow) model originated in the commodities market, where it’s used to assess the value of scarce assets. For example, the prices of precious metals like gold and silver are often linked to their “stock-to-flow ratio.”

The formula is defined as follows:

S2F = Existing Circulating Supply (Stock) ÷ Annual Production (Flow)

Plan B applied this concept to Bitcoin:

• Bitcoin’s production is halved every four years (Halving), causing its supply to decrease over time;
• When “output halves” and demand remains stable or even increases, the theory suggests that price should rise as scarcity increases.

According to Plan B’s original model, Bitcoin’s price should have surpassed $100,000 between 2021 and 2025. However, real-world market fluctuations have proven to be far more complex than the model.

2. The Core Logic of the S2F Model

Plan B’s core assumption is:

Scarcity = Value

In other words, the more limited the supply, the more valuable the asset. The model is based on three key points:

1. Bitcoin’s issuance is predictable and capped (with a total supply of 21 million coins);
2. Each halving reduces new supply, increasing market scarcity;
3. Growing scarcity should drive prices up exponentially.

Through regression analysis, the model found that Bitcoin’s historical price, plotted on a logarithmic scale, has a strong correlation with the S2F ratio. Plan B therefore claims that Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory can be predicted by a “scarcity curve.”

3. Real-World Deviations: Where the Model and Reality Diverge

From 2022 to 2025, the S2F model has repeatedly diverged from actual price movements. The main reasons are as follows:

1. Greater Impact of Macroeconomic Factors

Global interest rates, regulatory policies, and geopolitical risks all significantly affect Bitcoin’s price. For example, the Federal Reserve’s rate hike cycles, ETF approval timelines, and the timing of institutional entry can all cause short-term price distortions.

2. Irrational Market Behavior

The model assumes investors are rational and that price is driven solely by scarcity, but in reality, emotions, expectations, and speculative capital often dominate. For instance, the crypto winter of 2022 and the “AI boom” of 2024 both disrupted the model’s rhythm.

3. S2F Ignores On-Chain and Liquidity Data

While Bitcoin’s supply is limited, tradable liquidity (coins available for sale) is not constant. Rising proportions of long-term holders and institutional cold storage also impact the market’s supply structure.

4. Plan B’s Latest Views in 2025

As of November 2025, Plan B remains active on social media. He acknowledges the model’s deviations but maintains that it remains valid over the long term. He has introduced an improved version, the S2F-Cross Asset (S2FX) model, which attempts to classify Bitcoin as different “asset classes” at different stages—from experimental token, to digital gold, to a global store of value.

According to his latest forecast: if Bitcoin’s supply and demand trends continue through Q4 2025, the next cycle’s target price could fall between $180,000 and $220,000. However, even with model recalibration, market analysts remain cautious. Most institutions believe that while S2F still offers directional insight, it is difficult to use as a short-term investment tool.

5. How to Take a Rational View of the S2F Model

S2F’s popularity stems from its simplicity and intuitiveness. But in today’s market, scarcity alone cannot explain the full picture of price movements. Here’s a more balanced approach:

1. Treat S2F as a Long-Term Reference Indicator
   It’s best for gauging Bitcoin’s macro trends, not for capturing short-term volatility.
2. Combine with Multi-Dimensional Data Analysis
   Use it alongside on-chain active addresses, capital flows, trading volume, and institutional holdings to better assess market phases.
3. Monitor Market Cycle Timing
   Bitcoin halvings don’t trigger immediate bull runs—they play out gradually. Understanding the pace of capital inflows is more important than focusing solely on the model.
4. Always Prioritize Risk Management
   Even if the model suggests Bitcoin is “undervalued,” the market can still decline. Staggered entry and stop-loss strategies remain essential.

6. The 2025 Verdict: Myth or Insight?

Plan B’s S2F model may no longer be the “bible of prediction,” but it remains an important lens for understanding Bitcoin’s scarcity logic. It reminds investors that Bitcoin’s value is not just driven by market speculation, but also by its fixed issuance schedule and time-based scarcity.

The model’s shortcomings do not mean its theory is wrong—instead, they remind us that financial markets are never a one-dimensional equation. Price is the result of macro factors, sentiment, technology, and capital flows. In the diverse and complex market of 2025, true wisdom is not about finding a “perfect model,” but about maintaining clear logic and disciplined risk management amid constant change.

Conclusion:
The S2F model has inspired countless investors and has also been repeatedly challenged by reality. But just like Bitcoin’s own ethos—its significance is not in being perpetually correct, but in prompting us to rethink the relationship between “value” and “time.”